Nationals vs. Phillies MLB Betting Preview: How to Bet This Over-Under

Wednesday, September 12 at 7:00 PM ET

Citizens Bank Park

Humid and Mostly Cloudy 78°F

Wind: 2mph

Out to L

Aaron Nola will try to help the Philadelphia Phillies avoid a three-game sweep against the Washington Nationals.


Strasburg gets no-decision against the Cubs
Stephen Strasburg (7-7, 4.04 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) gave up three runs (two earned) on six hits and three walks with six strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings to get a no-decision in a 6-4 loss against the Cubs last Thursday. Strasburg is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in seven road starts.

The Nationals have scored 679 runs (11th in the majors), putting up 4.68 runs per game (11th), hitting .252 (11th) with 171 home runs (14th). Washington ranks 16th with a 4.01 ERA, 9th with a 1.24 WHIP and 11th with 1267 strikeouts. Their bullpen ranks 13th with a 3.92 ERA.

Bryce Harper leads the Nationals with 32 home runs, 92 RBI and a .390 OBP, Anthony Rendon has 19 home runs and 71 RBI and Juan Soto has 18 home runs and 60 RBI.


Nola beats the Mets
Aaron Nola (16-4, 2.29 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) allowed three earned runs on three hits (two home runs) and a walk with eight strikeouts over seven innings in a 4-3 win against the Mets last Friday. Nola is second in the National League with 16 wins, second with a 2.29 ERA, third with an 0.96 WHIP, third with 188 2/3 innings pitched and fourth with 196 strikeouts and he's 9-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in 14 home starts.

The Phillies have scored 613 runs (21st in the majors), putting up 4.26 runs per game (21st), hitting .238 (28th) with 168 home runs (15th). Philadelphia ranks 15th with a 3.96 ERA, 12th with a 1.27 WHIP and 6th with 1299 strikeouts. Their bullpen ranks 15th with a 3.98 ERA.

Rhys Hoskins leads the Phillies with 30 home runs and 89 RBI, Carlos Santana has 23 home runs and 82 RBI and Maikel Franco has 22 home runs and 67 RBI.

MLB Trends:

The Under is:

37-18-1 in Washington's last 56 road games

51-25-4 in Washington's last 80 road games against a right-handed starter

4-0 in Strasburg's last four road starts

6-2 in Strasburg's last eight starts with five days of rest

8-3 in Strasburg's last 11 starts against National League East opponents

7-3 in Strasburg's last 10 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game

19-6-3 in Nola's last 28 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game

18-7-3 in Nola's last 28 starts overall

7-3-2 in Nola's last 12 starts with four days of rest

7-3-1 in Nola's last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance

5-0 in Strasburg's last five road starts against the Phillies

6-1 in Nola's last seven starts against the Nationals

Stephen Strasburg has pitched well on the road, he's 4-0 with a 1.62 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in nine career starts at Citizens Bank Park and the Phillies are averaging just 3.67 runs in their last three games. Aaron Nola has a decent record at home and he's 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA and an 0.92 WHIP in his last seven starts.

MLB Pick: Under 7 (+105) at Jazz Sports

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Odds as seen on ESPN Chalk:

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