Cubs vs. Brewers Over-Under MLB Picks

After a 7-2 win in 11 innings, the Chicago Cubs continue their three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers, looking to create a little separation in the National League Central standings.


Chatwood can't make it to the fifth inning against the Phillies
Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.86 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) threw 4 2/3 innings with six strikeouts, allowing just one earned run despite surrendering four hits and seven walks in a 4-3 win over the Phillies on Thursday. It took Chatwood 107 pitches (58 strikes) to record just 14 outs. The right-hander has never had great command, he had a career 4.2 walks per 9 innings (BB/9) before this season but he now owns an abysmal 1.47 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 58 1/3 innings.

Key stats of the :

318 runs (5th)

.261 batting average (3rd)

3.18 earned run average (2nd)

1.25 WHIP (13th)

Players to watch:

Javier Baez (14 HR, 46 RBI)

Anthony Rizzo (11 HR, 46 RBI)

Kyle Schwarber (11 HR, 28 RBI)

Anderson loses second straight start
Chase Anderson (4-5, 4.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) gave up three earned runs on four hits and three walks with four strikeouts on 4 1/3 innings of a 3-1 loss against the Indians last Wednesday. Anderson has now lasted six innings just once in his past six starts and he owns an unimpressive 1.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) in 65 innings.

Key stats of the :

286 runs (14th)

.248 batting average (13th)

3.53 earned run average (6th)

1.22 WHIP (10th)

Players to watch:

Travis Shaw (14 HR, 39 RBI)

Jesus Aguilar (11 HR, 37 RBI)

Christian Yelich (.307, 8 HR, 28 RBI)

MLB Trends:

The Over is:

4-1-1 in Chatwood's last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game

5-2 in Chatwood's last seven starts

4-1 in Milwaukee's last five games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30

This is a very high total but both starters put runners on base often. These teams are hitting the ball well and their offenses are very potent, so there should be plenty of runs here and we are getting plus money.

MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (+100) at Jazz Sportsbook

Check odds here:

Odds as seen on ESPN Chalk:

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