Sonny Gray battles Jon Gray when the Cincinnati Reds open a three-game series with the Colorado Rockies on Friday night.
Cincinnati Reds (41-46) vs. Colorado Rockies (44-45)
Friday, July 12 at 8:40 PM ET
Winds from the SSW 11 km/h
The Rockies are -127 favorites and according to the computer projections at FiveThirtyEight, they win this game 56 percent of the time, which gives us precisely a -127 line using an odds converter, so let's see if taking a side is the right play.
Jazz Sports set the total for this game at 12 and NumberFire gives the Under a 54.7 percent likelihood. FiveThirtyEight doesn't project scores but Jeff Sagarin at USA Today assigns each team an offensive and defensive rating so let's interpret those numbers.
Here's what Sagarin has for these two teams:
Reds: 3.04 OFF, 2.92 DEF
Rockies: 3.45 OFF, 3.37 DEF
Now we multiply one team's offense with the other's defense to get the first team's projected score:
Now we subtract each number by the provided constant, which is 5.80 in this case.
This gives us a combined score of 8.71 runs, so it seems like we're supposed to play the Under in this game and it does make sense with this inflated total, even for a game at Coors Field.
Sonny Gray is 3-0 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in his last four starts and he has a 3.79 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in seven road starts while Jon Gray is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in his last six games (five starts) and he's 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in eight games (seven starts) at Coors Field.
The MLB Trends also support our calculations, as the Under is:
8-1-1 in Cincinnati's last 10 during game 1 of a series
11-3 in Cincinnati's last 14 road games against a team with a losing record
10-3 in Cincinnati's last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record
5-0-1 in Sonny Gray's last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game
4-0 in Colorado's last four overall
16-5 in Jon Gray's last 21 home starts
7-0 in the last seven meetings in Colorado
7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings
MLB Pick: Under 12 (-105) at Jazz Sports
Check odds here: http://bit.ly/jazzonaff