MLB

Athletics vs. Mariners MLB Pick: Brett Anderson's Success In Seattle Will Continue

Two teams heading in opposite directions will clash when the Oakland Athletics open a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners on Friday night. The A's have won 12 of their last 16 games while the Mariners have lost six of their last seven.

Oakland Athletics (48-40) vs. Seattle Mariners (38-53)

Friday, July 5 at 10:10 PM ET

T-Mobile Park

Coverage: MLB Network

19°

Mostly cloudy

Winds from the WNW 9 km/h

The Athletics are -147 favorites and according to the computer projections at FiveThirtyEight, they win this game 56 percent of the time, which gives us a -129 line using an odds converter, so I'm not taking a side here.

Jazz Sports set the total for this game at 10 and NumberFire gives the Under a 57.3 percent likelihood. FiveThirtyEight doesn't project scores but Jeff Sagarin at USA Today assigns each team an offensive and defensive rating so let's interpret those numbers.

Here's what Sagarin has for these two teams:

Athletics: 3.23 OFF, 3.08 DEF

Mariners: 3.27 OFF, 3.47 DEF

Now we multiply one team's offense with the other's defense to get the first team's projected score:

Athletics: 11.20

Mariners: 10.07

Now we subtract each number by the provided constant, which is 5.81 in this case.

Athletics: 5.39

Mariners: 4.26

This gives us a combined score of 9.65 runs, so it seems like we're supposed to play the Over in this game, which makes sense because Brett Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi have a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) over .303, a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) over 4.58, an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) over 5.07 and an On-Base Percentage (OBP) over .323

However, Anderson threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings of two-hit ball against the Angels last Saturday, issuing just two walks with three strikeouts in a 4-0 win, he is 9-5 with a 2.34 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP in 21 career appearances (20 starts) against the Mariners and 3-3 with a 2.37 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 11 career appearances (10 starts) at T-Mobile Park, averaging 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and the potential Mariners lineup has eight batters with a strikeout rate above 21 percent against lefties.

MLB Pick: Mariners Team Total Under 4 (+100) at Jazz Sports

Check odds here: http://bit.ly/jazzonaff

Related Articles