After becoming the fifth team since 1920 to win via walkoff in five or more straight home games in a single season, the Dodgers open a four-game series with the Padres on Thursday night.
San Diego Padres (42-44) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (59-29)
Thursday, July 4 at 9:10 PM ET
Coverage: MLB Network
Winds from the SW 6 km/h
The Dodgers are -214 favorites and according to the computer projections at FiveThirtyEight, they win this game 68 percent of the time, which gives us a -212 line using an odds converter, so I'm not taking a side here.
Jazz Sports set the total for this game at 8.5 and NumberFire gives the Under a 52.6 percent likelihood. FiveThirtyEight doesn't project scores but Jeff Sagarin at USA Today assigns each team an offensive and defensive rating so let's interpret those numbers.
Here's what Sagarin has for these two teams:
Padres: 3.12 OFF, 3.19 DEF
Dodgers: 3.37 OFF, 2.88 DEF
Now we multiply one team's offense with the other's defense to get the first team's projected score:
Now we subtract each number by the provided constant, which is 5.80 in this case.
This gives us a combined score of 8.14 runs, so it seems like we're supposed to play the Under in this game but Dinelson Lamet (7-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 21 career starts) is pitching for the first time since September 26, 2017. He lost that game after giving up four earned runs on four hits (one home run) and six walks with seven strikeouts over five innings in a 9-2 setback, also against the Dodgers.
Lamet was slated to be the team's No. 2 starter last season but he had season-ending reconstructive elbow surgery after getting hurt during his final start of spring training in 2018 and is hard to know what to expect from him tonight.
Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed seven earned runs on nine hits (three home runs) and one walk with four strikeouts over just four innings in a 13-9 loss against the Rockies last Friday but he has a .271 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) against righties, as well as a .128 Isolated Power (ISO) and the Padres will have right-handers Tatis Jr., Machado, Reyes, Renfroe, Myers, Kinsler and Hedges in their lineup and righties hit just .243 against Ryu, who is 6-0 with an 0.94 ERA and an 0.75 WHIP with one complete game in eight home starts this season.
NumberFire has the Padres scoring over 3.5 runs and our calculations based on Sagarin's projected numbers suggest that Padres team total under 3.5 is the right MLB pick here.
MLB Pick: Padres Team Total Under 3.5 (-125) at Jazz Sports
Check odds here: http://bit.ly/jazzonaff