Merrill Kelly & Walker Buehler Will Get Back on Track Tonight

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their two-game series on Wednesday night.

Arizona Diamondbacks (43-44) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (58-29)

Wednesday, July 3 at 10:10 PM ET

Dodger Stadium

Coverage: MLB Network


Mostly clear

Winds from the S 8 km/h

The Cardinals are -229 favorites and according to the computer projections at FiveThirtyEight, they win this game 66 percent of the time, which gives us a -194 line using an odds converter, so I'm not taking a side here.

Jazz Sports set the total for this game at 8 and NumberFire gives the Under a 47.7 percent likelihood. FiveThirtyEight doesn't project scores but Jeff Sagarin at USA Today assigns each team an offensive and defensive rating so let's interpret those numbers.

Here's what Sagarin has for these two teams:

Diamondbacks: 3.28 OFF, 3.05 DEF

Dodgers: 3.37 OFF, 2.88 DEF

Now we multiply one team's offense with the other's defense to get the first team's projected score:

Diamondbacks: 9.44

Dodgers: 10.28

Now we subtract each number by the provided constant, which is 5.81 in this case.

Diamondbacks: 3.63

Dodgers: 4.47

This gives us a combined score of 8.1 runs, so it seems like we're supposed to play the Over in this game but I'll take a chance on the Under. Merrill Kelly has lost his last two decisions and he's winless since June 12 but he's pitched well in his last six starts, posting a 2.75 ERA and an 0.92 WHIP.

Walker Buehler, on the other hand, is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA and an 0.77 WHIP with one complete game in seven home starts, 1-0 with a 3.47 ERA and an 0.81 WHIP in four career starts against the Diamondbacks and he has a .258 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), a 2.87 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a 3.36 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) and a .250 On-Base Percentage (OBP).

The MLB Trends also support my pick as the Under is:

5-0 in Kelly's last five starts following a team loss in their previous game

7-1 in Kelly's last eight starts on grass

10-4-3 in Los Angeles' last 17 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game

12-4-1 in Buehler's last 17 starts against National League West opponents

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at Jazz Sports

Check odds here:

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