Cardinals-Mariners MLB Pick: Jack Flaherty's Road Struggles Will Continue Tonight

The St. Louis Cardinals visit the Seattle Mariners to open a three-game interleague series on Tuesday night.

St. Louis Cardinals (41-41) vs. Seattle Mariners (37-51)

Tuesday, July 2 at 10:10 PM ET

T-Mobile Park

Coverage: ESPN+


Occasional rain and drizzle

Winds from the ENE 7 km/h

The Cardinals are -144 favorites and according to the computer projections at FiveThirtyEight, they win this game 52 percent of the time, which gives us a -108 line using an odds converter, so I'm not taking a side here.

Jazz Sports set the total for this game at 10.5 and NumberFire gives the Under a 51 percent likelihood. FiveThirtyEight doesn't project scores but Jeff Sagarin at USA Today assigns each team an offensive and defensive rating so let's interpret those numbers.

Here's what Sagarin has for these two teams:

Cardinals: 3.12 OFF, 3.08 DEF

Mariners: 3.28 OFF, 3.47 DEF

Now we multiply one team's offense with the other's defense to get the first team's projected score:

Cardinals: 10.82

Mariners: 10.10

Now we subtract each number by the provided constant, which is 5.80 in this case.

Cardinals: 5.02

Mariners: 4.30

This gives us a combined score of 9.32 runs, so it seems like we're supposed to play the Under in this game but we will have Jack Flaherty taking the hill for the Cardinals while Matt Carasiti will be making his third start as an opener for the Mariners.

Flaherty is winless since May 14 and he gave up seven earned runs on nine hits (three home runs) and one walk with five strikeouts in just 4 2/3 innings of a 7-3 loss against the Athletics last Tuesday.

NumberFire and TeamRankings both have the Mariners scoring over four runs and so does our calculations based on Sagarin's projected numbers.

Flaherty has a .318 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), a 4.77 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a 4.01 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP), a .302 On-Base Percentage (OBP) and he is just 1-2 with a 6.68 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in seven road starts. Mariners team total is the right MLB pick here.

MLB Pick: Mariners Team Total Over 4 (-110) at Jazz Sports

Check odds here:

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