Drew Pomeranz has been terrible this season but for some reason, he's always dominated the Rockies. Jon Gray pitched well in his last start in San Francisco but he's struggled against the Giants throughout his career, especially on the road. Is the Over the right MLB pick for tonight's Rockies-Giants game?
Colorado Rockies (40-37) vs. San Francisco Giants (33-43)
Monday, June 24 at 10:00 PM ET
Jazz Sports set the total for this game at 7.5 and NumberFire gives the over a 53.9 percent likelihood. FiveThirtyEight doesn't project scores but Jeff Sagarin at USA Today assigns each team an offensive and defensive rating so let's interpret those numbers.
Here's what Sagarin has for these two NL West opponents tonight:
Rockies: 3.48 OFF, 3.36 DEF
Giants: 3.00 OFF, 3.25 DEF
Now we multiply one team's offense with the other's defense to get the first team's projected score:
Now we subtract each number by the provided constant, which is 5.78 in this case.
This gives us a combined score of 9.5 runs, so it seems like we're supposed to play the Over in this game, which sounds about right with Jon Gray (3.77 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)) taking the mound for the Rockies against Drew Pomeranz (4.71 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)), with the wind blowing out to right at 17 km/h in San Francisco.
The MLB Trends also support our calculations, as the Over is:
4-0 in Colorado's last four games against a team with a losing record
5-1 in Colorado's last six road games against a team with a losing home record
5-1-1 in Gray's last seven road starts
5-1 in San Francisco's last six games overall
6-2-2 last 10 home games against a team with a winning record
8-3-2 in San Francisco's last 13 home games
Also, Pomeranz has a .394 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), a 6.01 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), he averages 4.4 walks per nine innings (BB/9), opponents are hitting .308 against him with a .386 On-Base Percentage (OBP) and a .554 Slugging Percentage (SLG).
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-115) at Jazz Sports
Check odds here: http://bit.ly/jazzonaff