German Marquez may be 7-3 but he has a poor 4.57 ERA this season and an awful 10.06 ERA over his last three starts, so making Over our MLB pick for tonight's Rockies-Dodgers game makes sense, even with Walker Buehler opposing him.
Colorado Rockies (40-34) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (51-25)
Friday, June 21 at 10:10 PM ET
Coverage: MLB Network
The Dodgers are -179 favorites and rightfully so and according to the computer projections at FiveThirtyEight, the Dodgers win this game 61 percent of the time, which gives us a -156 line using an odds converter, so I'm not taking a side here.
Jazz Sports set the total for this game at 7.5 and NumberFire gives the under a 51.5 percent likelihood. FiveThirtyEight doesn't project scores but Jeff Sagarin at USA Today assigns each team an offensive and defensive rating so let's interpret those numbers.
Here's what Sagarin has for these two NL West opponents tonight:
Rockies: 3.50 OFF, 3.37 DEF
Dodgers: 3.35 OFF, 2.83 DEF
Now we multiply one team's offense with the other's defense to get the first team's projected score:
Now we subtract each number by the provided constant, which is 5.76 in this case.
This gives us a combined score of 9.67 runs, so it seems like we're supposed to play the Over in this game, which sounds about right with German Marquez (3.43 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)) taking the mound for the Rockies opposite Walker Buehler (3.45 Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)), with the wind blowing out to right at 8 km/h in Los Angeles.
The MLB Trends also support our calculations, as the Over is:
4-0 in Colorado's last four games following a win
6-1 in Colorado's last seven games overall
4-1 in Marquez's last five starts overall
11-5-2 in Los Angeles' last 18 games against a team with a winning record
5-0-1 in Buehler's last six starts following a team loss in their previous game
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (+100) at Jazz Sports
Check odds here: http://bit.ly/jazzonaff