Saturday, January 12 at 4:35 PM ET
Winds from the ENE 4 mph
Gusts: 10 mph
The Indianapolis Colts are playing extremely well with a great quarterback in Andrew Luck and a winning playoff history against the Kansas City Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes and company are the clear favorites on Saturday for a reason.
The Chiefs have key aspects going for them, first, the game will be at Arrowhead Stadium and although the Colts upset the Texans on the road last Saturday, Kansas City will be well-rested after having an extra bye while Indianapolis has had to travel and scratch and claw to reach this stage, considering their 1-5 start this season.
The Colts have Andrew Luck under center but the Chiefs have MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback, a playmaker unlike any signal-caller that Kansas City has ever had and he's surrounded by talented weapons like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Spencer Ware, Sammy Watkins and Charcandrick West.
Indianapolis is an excellent team and if Kansas City doesn't play well they will lose this game, there's no doubt about it but Andrew Luck will have to play the game of his life to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and give them a chance here. Kansas City won't walk all over their defense but it can't be denied that the Colts have faced many average to poor offenses so far.
Their 11 wins this season, including last Saturday's playoff win at Houston, have come against nine different opponents and here's how they ranked in points per game and total yards per game:
Washington Redskins: 29th and 28th
Buffalo Bills: 30th and 30th
Oakland Raiders: 28th and 23rd
Jacksonville Jaguars: 31st and 27th
Tennessee Titans: 27th and 25th
Miami Dolphins: 26th and 31st
Houston Texans: 11th and 15th
Dallas Cowboys: 22nd and 22nd
New York Giants: 17th and 16th
These nine teams averaged 322.4 total yards per game and just 19.6 points per game while the Chiefs led the NFL with 425.6 total yards per game and 35.3 points per game.
The Indianapolis Colts are:
No key trends
The Kansas City Chiefs are:
7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win
3-1-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 14 points
12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against AFC opponents
Indianapolis has beat teams with offenses that aren't on the same level than Kansas City's, especially their passing game, as those nine opponents averaged:
7.1 yards per attempt
207.7 yards passing per game
19.6 passing touchdowns
Here are Patrick Mahomes' numbers in those same categories:
8.8 yards per attempt
318.6 yards passing per game
50 passing touchdowns
The Colts just haven't won against a team with anywhere near the firepower that the Chiefs have on the offensive side of the ball.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110) at Jazz Sports
Check odds here: http://bit.ly/2RMxhhA