Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Divisional Round Pick

Saturday, January 12 at 4:35 PM ET

Arrowhead Stadium


Partly sunny

Winds from the ENE 4 mph

Gusts: 10 mph

Coverage: NBC

The Indianapolis Colts are playing extremely well with a great quarterback in Andrew Luck and a winning playoff history against the Kansas City Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes and company are the clear favorites on Saturday for a reason.

The Chiefs have key aspects going for them, first, the game will be at Arrowhead Stadium and although the Colts upset the Texans on the road last Saturday, Kansas City will be well-rested after having an extra bye while Indianapolis has had to travel and scratch and claw to reach this stage, considering their 1-5 start this season.

The Colts have Andrew Luck under center but the Chiefs have MVP frontrunner Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback, a playmaker unlike any signal-caller that Kansas City has ever had and he's surrounded by talented weapons like Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Spencer Ware, Sammy Watkins and Charcandrick West.

Indianapolis is an excellent team and if Kansas City doesn't play well they will lose this game, there's no doubt about it but Andrew Luck will have to play the game of his life to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and give them a chance here. Kansas City won't walk all over their defense but it can't be denied that the Colts have faced many average to poor offenses so far.

Their 11 wins this season, including last Saturday's playoff win at Houston, have come against nine different opponents and here's how they ranked in points per game and total yards per game:

Washington Redskins: 29th and 28th

Buffalo Bills: 30th and 30th

Oakland Raiders: 28th and 23rd

Jacksonville Jaguars: 31st and 27th

Tennessee Titans: 27th and 25th

Miami Dolphins: 26th and 31st

Houston Texans: 11th and 15th

Dallas Cowboys: 22nd and 22nd

New York Giants: 17th and 16th

These nine teams averaged 322.4 total yards per game and just 19.6 points per game while the Chiefs led the NFL with 425.6 total yards per game and 35.3 points per game.

NFL Trends:

The Indianapolis Colts are:

No key trends

The Kansas City Chiefs are:

7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win

3-1-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game

5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 14 points

12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against AFC opponents

Indianapolis has beat teams with offenses that aren't on the same level than Kansas City's, especially their passing game, as those nine opponents averaged:

7.1 yards per attempt

207.7 yards passing per game

19.6 passing touchdowns

Here are Patrick Mahomes' numbers in those same categories:

8.8 yards per attempt

318.6 yards passing per game

50 passing touchdowns

The Colts just haven't won against a team with anywhere near the firepower that the Chiefs have on the offensive side of the ball.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-110) at Jazz Sports

Check odds here:

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