Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Thanksgiving Day NFL Pick

Thursday, November 22 at 8:20 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Partly cloudy
Winds from the E 7 mph
Gusts: 10 mph
Coverage: NBC
The desperate Atlanta Falcons try to save their season when they visit the red-hot New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons have lost their last two games, including a disappointing 22-19 home setback against the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, after a Brett Maher 42-yard field goal as time expired. The Falcons erased a 10-point deficit to make it 19-19 with 1:52 to play but the Cowboys drove 51 yards in 10 plays, setting up the winning kick. Matt Ryan completed 24 of 34 passes for 291 yards, one touchdown and one interception, Tevin Coleman ran for 58 yards on eight carries and Julio Jones caught six passes for 118 receiving yards and one touchdown.
The Falcons are averaging 314.6 passing yards (3rd in the NFL) and 88.8 rushing yards (29th). Atlanta ranks 9th with 26.3 points per game and 29th with 27.6 points against. Matt Ryan has passed for 3,306 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions, Tevin Coleman has 500 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 114 carries and Julio Jones has 73 receptions for 1,158 yards and three touchdowns. De'Vondre Campbell has 55 tackles and Takkarist McKinley has 5.5 sacks.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints are the hottest team in the league with nine straight wins, including a 48-7 beatdown of the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. The loss was the largest ever by a defending Super Bowl champion. The Saints now have outscored their past two opponents, the Bengals and the Eagles, 99-21 combined, which isn't easy to do because the NFL is known for having competitive balance. 
Drew Brees completed 22 of 30 passes for 363 yards and four touchdowns, Mark Ingram II ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries and Alvin Kamara added 71 rushing yards on 13 carries and he also caught a 37-yard touchdown pass. Tre'Quan Smith had 10 receptions for 157 yards and one touchdown and Michael Thomas caught four passes for 92 receiving yards and one touchdown.
The Saints are averaging 295.7 passing yards (6th in the NFL) and 131.4 rushing yards (6th). New Orleans ranks 1st with 37.8 points per game and 15th with 23.9 points against. Drew Brees has passed for 2,964 yards, 25 touchdowns and one interception, Alvin Kamara has 617 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 136 carries and Michael Thomas has 82 receptions for 1,042 yards and eight touchdowns. Demario Davis has 70 tackles and Cameron Jordan has six sacks.
NFL Trends:
The Over is:
5-1 in Atlanta's last six games following an ATS loss
4-1 in Atlanta's last five games following a straight up loss
16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 games on fieldturf
4-0 in New Orleans' last four games against NFC South opponents
7-1 in New Orleans' last eight games after allowing less than 150 passing yards in their previous game
7-1 in New Orleans' last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game
16-5 in New Orleans' last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
19-8-1 in New Orleans' last 28 home games
14-6 in New Orleans' last 20 games against a team with a losing record
30-13 in New Orleans' last 43 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
13-6 in New Orleans' last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
These two teams combined for 80 points and 941 total yards in the first meeting on September 23, a 43-37 Saints win in overtime and in 20 games between Matt Ryan and Drew Brees, the Falcons and the Saints have surpassed 60 points six times and 70 or more points in three of the last five contests. Both teams have plenty of weapons on offense and the Falcons really need to win, so this should be a track meet, just like in their Week 3 game.
NFL Pick: Over 60 (-110) at Jazz Sports
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