Dodgers vs. Brewers National League Championship Series Game 1 Picks

Friday, October 12 at 8:09 PM ET

Miller Park


The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers clash in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series at Miller Park. The Dodgers won the season series against the Brewers, 4-3, winning two of three games at Miller Park on July 20-22.


Kershaw tries to help Dodgers steal home field advantage
The Dodgers closed out the NLDS with the Braves in four games after prevailing 6-2 on Monday afternoon. Los Angeles got back on track from a 6-5 loss in Game 3 by rallying against the Atlanta bullpen. Manny Machado was 2-for-4 with five RBIs, including a three-run home run and David Freese gave the Dodgers the lead for good with a pinch-hit single in the sixth inning. Ryan Madson earned the win by getting the final two outs to escape a bases-loaded jam in the in the fifth inning.

Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) makes his second start of the postseason after beating the Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS last Friday, when he threw eight scoreless innings, surrendering just two hits and no walks with three strikeouts in a 3-0 win.

Kershaw is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA, an 0.89 WHIP, 13 strikeouts and a walk over 19 innings in his last three starts, he's 6-5 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, 100 strikeouts and 24 walks with over 91 1/3 innings in 14 career starts (two complete games) against the Brewers and he's 4-1 with a 1.40 ERA, an 0.76 WHIP, 48 strikeouts and nine walks over 51 1/3 innings in seven career starts (one complete game) at Miller Park.


Brewers turn to Gonzalez in Game 1
The Brewers are coming off a sweep of the Rockies in their National League Division Series after winning Game 3 6-0 at Coors Field last Sunday. Milwaukee has won 11 straight games dating back to the final week of the regular season. Veteran catcher Erik Kratz was 3-for-4 on Sunday while Jesus Aguilar, Orlando Arcia and Keon Broxton all hit solo home runs. Corbin Burnes got the win after throwing two scoreless innings of relief, surrendering no hits or walks with two strikeouts.

Gio Gonzalez (10-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) hasn't pitched since September 30, when he threw five scoreless innings against the Tigers, surrendering three hits and a walk with two strikeouts in an 11-0 win.

Gonzalez went 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and an 0.96 WHIP in five starts with the Brewers, recording 22 strikeouts and 10 walks over 25 1/3 innings. The left-hander is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, 39 strikeouts and 14 walks over 38 innings in six starts, averaging an impressive 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and he's 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, 46 strikeouts and 26 walks over 48 innings in nine career starts at Miller Park.

MLB Trends:

The Los Angeles Dodgers are:

36-15 in Kershaw's last 51 road starts

42-11 in Kershaw's last 53 starts against a team with a winning record

45-10 in Kershaw's last 55 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game

13-6 in their last 19 postseason games

5-2 in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee

5-2 in Kershaw's last seven road starts against the Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are:

1-4 in their last five National League Championship games

The Under is:

7-1 in Kershaw's last eight starts with six days of rest

6-2 in Kershaw's last eight Friday starts

7-3 in Milwaukee's last 10 home games

5-0-1 in Kershaw's last six road starts against the Brewers

6-1-1 in Kershaw's last eight starts against the Brewers

Seeing the Brewers name Gio Gonzalez their Game 1 starter surprised me, he does have a decent record in his career against the Dodgers but he hasn't pitched in almost two weeks and he's posted a 4.78 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP with 26 strikeouts and 19 walks over 26 1/3 innings in six postseason starts.

Clayton Kershaw dominated the Braves in Game 2 of the NLDS last Friday and he can build on that performance here. I'm leaning on the Dodgers tonight, they've clearly been here before, as they're making their third straight NLCS appearance while the Brewers hadn't reached this stage since 2011. Postseason experience can be the difference and Kershaw will pitch with a chip on his shoulder.

MLB Picks: Dodgers -157 & Under 7.5 (-115) at Jazz Sports

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