Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots Sunday Night Football Pick

Sunday, October 14 at 8:20 PM ET

Gillette Stadium

Two of the best teams in the AFC clash when the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs visit the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. It's only Week 6 but the Chiefs can put themselves in prime position for the No. 1 seed in the conference if they can escape Foxborough with a win against the surging, defending conference champion Patriots.


Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are the only unbeaten team in the AFC and they're coming off a 30-14 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Patrick Mahomes faced his first adversity of the season and threw two interceptions and no touchdowns but he also finished with 313 passing yards and 13 yards and one touchdown on the ground. The Jaguars made Mahomes work for all his passing yards, his completion percentage was under 60 percent for the first time since Week 1 and his 8.24 yards per attempt while impressive, were a season-low.

His teammates picked him up on both sides of the ball. Defensive end Chris Jones had a crucial 20-yard interception return for a touchdown late in the first half and the Chiefs picked off Blake Bortles four times and forced five turnovers. Kareem Hunt ran for 87 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries and Travis Kelce caught five passes for 100 yards.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid should watch tapes of New England's Week 2 loss in Jacksonville to see if he can incorporate the same passing schemes for Mahomes' game plan. Blake Bortles had eight completions of 15 or more yards against the Patriots and Patrick Mahomes is 20 of 33 for 436 yards and five touchdowns on passes of 11 to 20 yards.

The Chiefs are averaging 297.4 passing yards (11th in the NFL) and 115.6 rushing yards (11th). Kansas City ranks 2nd with 35.0 points per game and 20th with 25.8 points against. Patrick Mahomes has passed for 1513 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions, Kareem Hunt has 376 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 93 carries and Tyreek Hill has 27 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns. Anthony Hitchens has 45 tackles and Dee Ford has four sacks.

New England Patriots
The New England Patriots shook off a 1-2 start with two straight wins after a convincing 38-24 victory over the Indianapolis Colts last Thursday. Tom Brady completed 34 of 44 passes for 341 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions and rookie running back Sony Michel had 98 yards and one touchdown on the ground on 18 carries.

Wide receiver Julian Edelman returned after serving a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's PED policy and he had seven receptions for 57 yards, Josh Gordon had two receptions, including a 34-yard touchdown catch and James White catches 10 passes for 77 yards and one touchdown.

New England has won 10 straight home games, including the playoffs, since a 33-30 loss to the Panthers in Week 4 last year, they've averaged 34.3 points and 425.3 total yards in their three home wins this season and Tom Brady has thrown for 892 yards and nine touchdowns in those games but he also has five interceptions.

The Patriots are averaging 244.4 passing yards (21st in the NFL) and 113.0 rushing yards (13th). New England ranks 9th with 26.6 points per game and 9th with 21.6 points against. Tom Brady has passed for 1259 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, Sony Michel has 294 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 67 carries and Rob Gronkowski has 23 receptions for 308 yards and one touchdown. Devin McCourty has 33 tackles and Deatrich Wise Jr. has 2.5 sacks.

NFL Trends:

The Kansas City Chiefs are:

5-0 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record

5-0 ATS in their last five games overall

12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game

16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win

16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS win

The New England Patriots are:

No key trends

The Chiefs will present plenty of problems for the Patriots and their defense. New England made Blake Bortles look Tom Brady-like in their 31-20 loss in Week 2 by failing to slow down the Jacksonville wide receivers and while Andrew Luck seemingly threw on every play and finished with 59 attempts for the Colts in Week 5, he also had 365 passing yards without top wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.

This game will be won by who has the ball last and the Kansas City defense rose to the occasion in last week's 30-14 home win against Jacksonville so I like them to keep this team in the game. It may take only one turnover to separate these teams so I like the Chiefs to cover this spread.

NFL Pick: Chiefs +3.5 (-110) at Jazz Sports

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